A friend of mine sent me an article from the Christian Science Monitor (propigated on Yahoo!) that politely, and subtly panns all three of the GOP candidate’s currently proposed ‘flat’ tax plans.
The overall theme of the article is that all three plans reduce taxes for most income groups, particularilly the wealthiest americans, but at the same time reduces total tax revenue. This, the author claims, will leave a hole in the Federal Budget that would have to be closed by massive spending cuts.
What the author fails to point out (or does not understand) is that these analyses are ‘static.’ That is to say when calculating revenue they only take into account our current mid-recession (frugal and paranoid) spending habits. Businesses are spending less on equipment and hiring and people are spending less on things. Everyone from the poorest among us to the biggest mega-corporation are holding onto what little money thye have. This austere behavior means less tax revenue.
Personally I’m a supporter of Herman Cain and his 999 plan, so I’ll just focus on that.
According to the article, most millionaires and billionaires would get a tax cut that averaged nearly half a million. This is highly misleading. If a billionaire gets their tax rate reduced from 40% down to 9%, that’s a tax savings of 310 Million. A couple of them will skew any population. Having billionaires in the same statistical range as ‘mere’ millionaires is misleading. Furthermore 70% of Americans making between 50,000 and 75,000 would be on the hook for $4,300 more.
While these things may be technically correct, they fail to represent the larger picture. Under Cain’s plan, my personal income tax rate will go down (a bit), while my sales tax rate will go up. How much that affects me is derermined by how much I buy. If I stick only to the essencials, I’ll be paying a lot less than if I blow my whole paycheck at Frys every month. I estimate that if I maintain my current spending habits (remember I meantioned ‘static’ above) I’ll be on the hook for about $2,500 more in taxes each year.
I’m ok with that. The world’s not static. Remeber the thrid ’9′ of Mr. Cain’s 999 plan? That’s the one left out of the article by CSM. The third 9 is a flat tax on business profits. Most businesses will see a reduction of their tax rate from about 30% down to 9%. Ironically enough, these are the same businesses that sell me things. are businesses going to reduce their prices by 21% overnight. No, probably not. But those who want to compete are going to start reducing prices right away. Analysts believe that it’ll settle somewhere around 16%. That’s an increase in my spending power by 7%. My employer, who’s charging a bit less but saving even more, can now afford to hire more people and even give out raises. Again, my spending power goes up.
In a static system, Cain’s plan would probably be revenue neutral, or even revenue negative now that he’s exempted those below the poverty line from income tax. As I pointed out above, we’re not in a static system. As pointed out by Art Laffer in the Wall Street Journal (whom I think has a bit more autohrity in the realm of economic news than does Yahoo!) Cain’s plan raises about as much our current system does:
In the recent past, federal tax revenues from the personal and business income taxes, all payroll taxes, and the capital gains, gift and estate taxes have averaged $2.3 trillion, while gross domestic product has averaged about $14.5 trillion. The total revenue from these taxes as a share of gross domestic product averages around 16%. Sometimes it’s a good deal higher, as in the boom of the late 1990s, and sometimes its lower, as in today’s “Great Recession.” But a number in the 16%-19% range is as good as you’ll get under our current tax code.
By contrast, the three tax bases for Mr. Cain’s 9-9-9 plan add up to about $33 trillion. But the plan exempts from any tax people below the poverty line. Using poverty tables, this exemption reduces each tax base by roughly $2.5 trillion. Thus, Mr. Cain’s 9-9-9 tax base for his business tax is $9.5 trillion, for his income tax $7.7 trillion, and for his sales tax $8.3 trillion. And there you have it! Three federal taxes at 9% that would raise roughly $2.3 trillion and replace the current income tax, corporate tax, payroll tax (employer and employee), capital gains tax and estate tax.
But we’re not in a static system. The whole point of changing the tax code it to fix the problems we’re having now. Any new tax system has to address the issues of unemployment, spending and the deficit. If you don’t analyize people’s behavior and how those things are going to change under a new plan, you’ll have no idea how it’s going to preform in the real world. Again, as Art Laffer pointed out:
The whole purpose of a flat tax, à la 9-9-9, is to lower marginal tax rates and simplify the tax code. With lower marginal tax rates (and boy will marginal tax rates be lower with the 9-9-9 plan), both the demand for and the supply of labor and capital will increase. Output will soar, as will jobs. Tax revenues will also increase enormously—not because tax rates have increased, but because marginal tax rates have decreased.
It is often said that 999 plan will lead to 90-90-90 plan as soon as there is a democrat congress. I’m fine with this too. Under the 999 plan, there is transparency in our tax code. I know that I’m paying the same rate at Microsoft and Warren Buffet. Any increase impacts them as much as it does me. They’ll be tremendous pressure from the rich and poor alike to leave the tax rates alone. There is no way that any congress would risk reelection by changing this too much.
Once we have the will to ditch our current IRS nightmere, we’ll also have the will to make the cuts and other reforms we need. Cain’s 999 plan will be just the first course in a multi-course meal that includes balancing the budget, putting a cap on spending (as a percentrge of GDP), and reforming all of our major expendatures.
Even if we can’t get it thru it opens up the dialogue to spur real reform.